The Baltic Sea is often analysed as a security space. Less attention has been paid to the economic costs of a serious disruption for Sweden, Europe, and for Russia.
This Politea report models two scenarios – a near-total military blockade and a partial, sanctions-based closure – and finds that Sweden’s short-run GDP exposure in the severe scenario is comparable in magnitude to the 2008 financial crisis. On the Russian side, Baltic export routes carry up to USD 90 billion per year in energy and fertilizer revenues at risk.
A central strategic conclusion is that a partial, sanctions-based closure – Scenario B – can impose substantial economic pressure on Russia while avoiding the unambiguous casus belli that a full military blockade would carry.
Authored by Björn Fägersten and Dmytro Stoyko, the report was commissioned by the Swedish Armed Forces, Directorate of Strategic Plans and Policy.